AIR.PA
Airbus SE
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Undervalued·Quality 55·RSI 42·DCF -37%·Conviction 62
Investment Thesis — Airbus SE
The market is currently overreacting to Airbus's short-term operational headwinds and supply chain disruptions, failing to fully price in its robust long-term demand, dominant duopoly position, and massive, high-quality backlog. The recent share price decline offers a compelling entry point before operational improvements translate into accelerated deliveries and earnings growth.
Catalysts
- Significant improvement in supply chain stability, particularly for engine and aerostructure components.
- Upward revision of commercial aircraft delivery targets, signaling successful production ramp-up.
- Major new order announcements from key airlines or defense contracts, reinforcing demand strength.
Risk Factors
- Further delays or cuts to commercial aircraft delivery targets due to persistent supply chain bottlenecks.
- Escalation of geopolitical tensions impacting global air travel demand or defense spending.
- Failure to secure critical labor or material inputs, leading to sustained underperformance against production targets.
Key Debates
Gross margins expand to 18% by H1 2025 on A320neo ramp
FY25 revenue growth exceeds 12%, re-rating P/S above 2x
ROE sustains above 20%, driving P/B to 5.5x by Q3 2025