ENI.MI
Eni S.p.A.
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Undervalued·RSI 70·DCF -29%·Conviction 55
Investment Thesis — Eni S.p.A.
The market is mispricing Eni as a legacy oil & gas major, failing to fully account for its accelerated and profitable energy transition strategy. Investors are overlooking the structural shift towards a diversified multi-energy company, which warrants a higher, more stable valuation multiple.
Catalysts
- Faster-than-expected growth and profitability from Plenitude (renewables & retail) and Eni Sustainable Mobility (biofuels).
- Successful execution and Final Investment Decision (FID) on major carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects.
- Strategic divestments of non-core, high-carbon assets at attractive valuations, signaling commitment to transition.
Risk Factors
- Sustained collapse in crude oil and natural gas prices impacting upstream profitability.
- Slower-than-anticipated ramp-up or lower-than-expected returns from new energy transition investments.
- Regulatory headwinds or policy shifts that disincentivize fossil fuel production or green energy development.
Key Debates
Fwd P/E expands to 15x by Q4 as growth sustains 7.80%.
RSI 80.20 triggers 10% correction by August end.
New project execution lifts revenue growth above 7.80% by Q1'25.