3i's NAV per share declines >5% by H2 due to portfolio revaluations
3i's forward revenue growth decelerates below 20% by FY25
3i stock rebounds >15% by Q3 as oversold conditions normalize
Recent Daily Analysis
— Do not mistake today's 6% rally for a reversal; it is a mechanical bounce from an oversold condition after a brutal 19% decline. The data conflict—a low 40 RSI clashing with a nonsensical 420x P/E and +2164% DCF gap—reveals a valuation entirely detached from its own earnings. We hypothesize the market now trades 3i Group as a liquid proxy for sentiment on private equity valuations, specifically its key holding, the retailer Action. This relief rally is driven by algorithms covering shorts, not by fundamental analysis. If the next private market transaction data shows even a minor markdown in consumer retail multiples, this bounce will instantly evaporate.